2021年10月 Twitter 发言摘要

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在这个高度互联的世界,如果你做的产品服务不是世界上最好的,或者独特的,你就很容易被替代,你的价值就容易接近于零。这和你局部有多努力刻苦完全无关,而主要取决于你如何在世界上找到属于自己的独特的定位。

从不思考积极调整自己的定位,而甘于被外界打造成容易替代的,标准化的螺丝钉,再努力也无法获得议价能力,是重大人生悲剧。

一个典型的陷阱,是追逐一些短期稀缺但长期容易被替代的机会。比如 covid 之后一些人投机去生产口罩,最后血本无归,债台高筑。

Think about what problems you experienced every day, try to solve them, and share your thought process and some of the solution openly, and then you will realize many other people also had similar problems.

做投资的过程就是学习识别“矛盾,假象,谎言和复杂”的过程。然后意识到过去曾被种种“矛盾,假象,谎言和复杂”所愚弄和折腾,开始极为愤怒,然后慢慢平复,学会顺应和驾驭客观形势,并随着这种驾驭的熟练,心情转为欣慰和愉悦。 投资反馈快,因此认知的进步更快

Cultural difference is like difference in software architecture and API. Without a rich repertoire of knowledge and mental models, it would be hard to bridge the gap in cultural differences.

和一大群可以信赖的分布式网络节点,快速,安全,全面的共享信息并且协作,是节约成本,极大提高效率的核心策略。是智人最终超越其它生物,主宰地球的演化路径。“共享信息和协作”本质是软件技术,看上去不性感,但最终是决定胜负优劣的关键。很多人的发迹,是因为运气或者无意识的和某几个关键节点建立连接,因此建立了巨大的信息优势。但这种非主动构建的,局部的,静态的信息优势,面对大规模自发涌现的开放的分布式节点网络,终将败下阵来。

Buy right, sit tight; A family in harmony, a life of prosperity.

The word “alpha” has been abused by people with only a few years of investment experience and a time horizon of only a few weeks at most. And the “alpha”, even if true, will only last for a few days if not hours. True alpha will 1) last for years. 2) even if revealed publicly, people will not believe it, many will laugh at it.

Need to learn from William Shatner about longevity. Just bought his book: “Live long and … What I learned along the way. ”
“Incrediblely, to me being busy working all day is almost erotic, I get a kind of sexual pleasure from it, not quite as vivid as making love, but it brings me such joy. ” page 134 of the book. This is his way of describing the state of “flow”.

Make your work composable, share it as widely as possible, and let it compound. Composability means others can freely build their work by borrowing your work and ideas. Complexity and efficiency emerge out of layers and layers of freely-associating composable entities, shaped by the circumstances of evolution. Its emergence is simply beyond the capability of any small group of central planning bureaucrats.

Your own capability and wealth is largely determined by the networks that you can associate with in terms of creating composable work, more composability, more power to you! Judge the importance of a project not by its own merit, but by its composability first.

If you relentlessly increase efficiency in things that matter, health, time, work, relationships, everything else will take care of itself. Efficiency improvement should be the goal. Efficiency will generate wealth exponentially. The dirty little secret about efficiency is that it will compound, i.e, whatever tricks you learned ten years ago to make yourself more efficient, you are still reaping dividend from that now. The same cannot be said of most other activities you engaged in.

知识复杂度高了后,即使翻一些老书也能产生丰富的联想, 发现收获。反过来说,人越浅薄的时候,越爱抱怨, 越爱做伸手党。

Strongly recommend Andrew Yang’s book “Forward”. Especially chapter 16, on how congressional politics really work during and after the election. This book gives you a better mental model.

Envy is such a taboo subject that people prefer to pretend it does not exist, nevertheless, it is so fundamental to how society works, similar to the way gravity and electromagnetism are fundamental to how the cosmos works.

Freedom go up more important than number go up.

Proof of work keeps people honest. Extreme proof of work keeps people extremely honest. All other systems are vulnerable to deception and manipulation.

Nobody will chase stupid investment properties with scarce money, which would reduce a lot of waste in real estate speculation, which would save a lot of material and human effort in the physical world.

Brian Arthur’s theory can help you making money in the financial market, especially when there are disequilibrium processes and paradigm shifts involved.

Energy will flow to where more meaningful connections can be established more quickly and at a lower cost, and that will create more efficiency in the long run. Nothing can stop it. Whether it’s good or bad is very subjective.